Be warned: 'If war doesn't get you, then science will subsume you'

How will man enter the third decade of the 21st century? What is the world going to be like in the year 2020 and beyond?

There are two distinct possibilities . man will either be wiped out in a war, or he will be subsumed by science. If he survives war, it is quite likely that in the next 20 years man will evolve from the human to the post-human phase. In other words, it will be question of our existence and/or our evolution.

This rather .happy. scenario was painted at the last meeting by Mr. Sundeep Waslekar, the founder of Strategic Foresight Group, a leading think tank that advises governments on strategic affairs, while speaking on .The world in 2020..

Referring to the huge advances in genome transfers, chromosomal research, biology, nanotechnology, computer chip technology and other fields, he said the speculation about .creating human colonies in space. was not idle chatter. It was likely that .post-human. human beings would colonise space.

Since it was not possible for human beings to live in space for long periods of time and to procreate, the colonising would be done by the .post-human. beings who would have over a thousand times the processing capacity of the current human brain.

Mr. Waslekar, who is one of the leading strategic thinkers of the world in geo-political futures and conflict resolution, is the founder of the International Centre for Peace Initiatives, apart from being President of the Strategic Foresight Group. These think tanks specialise in governance, conflicts, global and regional security, political economy and political philosophy.

An alumnus of Oxford and Mumbai Universities, he worked with the Centre for Policy Research in Delhi in the 1980.s and also advised the research and information systems of the Ministry of External Affairs.

Since the early 1990.s, he has been involved in parallel diploma-tic exercises to find common grou-nds in times of crises. He has facilitated dialogue between Indian and Pakistani decision-makers, Nepalese political parties and leaders of Western Islamic countries. He also has experience in negotiating with militants and terrorists.

Since the early 1990.s, he has been involved in parallel diploma-tic exercises to find common grou-nds in times of crises. He has facilitated dialogue between Indian and Pakistani decision-makers, Nepalese political parties and leaders of Western Islamic countries. He also has experience in negotiating with militants and terrorists.

According to him, the single most important event of the past five to six years was the success of an experiment in genome transfer at the Craig Western University in the USA on June 28, 2007.

.They have successfully completed the transfer of genes from one species to another, where the recipient species takes orders from the donor species. This has happened for the first time in history as a manmade phenomenon.

"Right now, the experiment is limited to bacteria, but if you extend it logically, it means that 50 years down the line if you are caught and taken prisoner, the rulers (if they so decide, thanks to advances in genome transfer) can give you an injection of a pig and you will emerge from prison as a pig."

Discussing matters of state? Mr. Sundeep Waslekar is all ears as Dolly Thakore kneels and makes a point. At left is (Dr.) Arun Vakil

Another unrelated development took place in January, 2007, when the Chinese military shot down a harmless weather satellite. It was for the first time that a satellite was shot down since the 1970's and 1980's, when the Russians and Americans were at each other.s throats, taking out each other's satellites.

Had these two developments taken place in isolation, there would have been no cause for worry. But they were inter-linked and were .two parts of a whole change" that was taking place, he said.

The Craig Western University had created an artificial human chromosome that was one-tenth the size of a normal human chromosome and successfully injected it into the human body. The artificial chromosome had merged with the normal human chromosome.

A company in Minnesota had manufactured elastin made of amino acids which could be injected into the body to replace soft tissues, such as parts of the heart or the kidneys. It merged with the body and was not treated as a foreign object, thanks to the amino acids.

Apart from shooting down a satellite, the Chinese had sent up a satellite in the lower geo-synchronous orbit in which were planted 12 different species of vegetables. They were growing vegetables in space!

They had also developed the capacity to block, with the help of lasers, the US military.s reconnaissance satellites that were monitoring/ detecting every movement in China.

IF THE DOLLAR FALLS, PANIC BUTTONS WOULD BE PRESSED

A third significant development would occur next year, when George W. Bush would step down as President because of constitutional requirements. But before going, Mr. Bush would give three .gifts. to the American people, Mr. Waslekar said.

Is this a string .quartet. or a .strategic. one? At the last meeting are (from left) PP Shiv Gorowara, Shailesh Haribhakti, Mr. Waslekar and Vijay Meghani

First, the dollar would depreciate by about 50% as compared to its value when he took over in 2001. At that time, one euro was worth $0.90. At present, it fetched $1.37. But by the end of Mr. Bush.s term, it would be $1.45 . a depreciation of 50%.

Second, the public debt of the USA would double from $5.50 trillion when he assumed office to $11 trillion as he steps down (at present the public debt was $9.50 trillion).

Before speaking on the third .gift. that Mr. Bush could give Americans .any time between next month and November next year., Mr. Waslekar reverted to the area of statistical probabilities. He said there was a 30% chance that Mr. Bush would indeed give this third .gift. to his people. .And in our business of forecasting, a 30% possibility is a very high probability..

This .gift. could be an attack on Iran. It would not be like the one on Iraq but rather a surgical attack on Iran.s nuclear facilities. To undermine the Iranian nuclear programme, Mr. Bush could also go for a conventional attack, but that would not work; the only other option was a nuclear strike.

"Mr. Bush would seriously consider a nuclear strike. Whether he goes for it or not, we don.t know. If he does, there is an 80 to 90% chance that the senior military commanders of the US military will resign and not take his orders.

"And then, for the first time in the history of the USA, there will be a constitutional crisis, leading to a big market collapse. This is something that we are looking at the possibility of happening in the next 12 months.

"If it happens, Mr. Bush, in addition to devaluing his currency by half and doubling the national debt, will also gift to the people of the USA the first constitutional crisis in over 200 years of US history."

Mr. Waslekar then turned to Mr. Bush.s record of fighting four wars and losing four and a half wars in seven years, giving birth to a new mathematics. The war in Afghanistan .was won half and lost half.. The war in Iraq was lost, even though Saddam Hussein had been taken out.

The third was the proxy war between USA and Iran, fought between Israel and the Hezbollah. Israel had lost, but it was debatable whether it had lost from the military point of view. But there was no disputing the fact that the US had lost the war from the political point of view.

Finally, the fourth war, another proxy war between Hamaas and Al- Fatah, in which the Al-Fatah was defeated. Thus, out of four wars, Mr. Bush had lost three and a half. Yet, the tally remained at four and a half wars lost. That was because Mr. Bush had lost yet another war without fighting . the war of credibility.

In the course of just one month, Iraq, Afghanistan (both with US "puppet" governments), Azerbaijan, where the US had invested billions of dollars, and Turkey, a member of NATO, had got into long-term co-operative agreements on energy with Iran.

Even in the UK, where Tony Blair was seen as a .poodle. of the US and his popularity was 27%, when his successor Gordon Brown announced that he would withdraw troops from Basra, his popularity went up to 72%. This showed how little credibility the US administration had in the UK, Mr. Waslekar said.

Vandana Kanoria has the undivided attention of Daniel Zonshine. And PP Ajay Kanoria (at right) seems to agree with what she is saying

.Now, if he actually fights a war with Iran, it will be the next war he will lose. Not only will he lose, the entire region will be in turmoil. I hope US military commanders persuade him not to launch that war..

.But let.s say we escape this war; then as we go further down towards 2020, we have a serious possibility of another, much bigger .war.. And that is where the devaluation of the dollar is a lot more significant than what it means to the financial markets and foreign currency traders..

If the dollar fell to the level where one euro equalled $1.50 and if someone pressed the panic button, "then you.ve had it!" There would be a run on the dollar.

Recalling that the dollar was delinked from the gold standard and hitched to oil contracts in 1971, Mr. Waslekar said if Iran, Russia and two or three other countries decided not to quote oil contracts in dollars, there would be a big reduction in the demand for the currency.

By 2030, the processing speed of the chip will equal that of the human brain

But it was also possible that nobody would press the panic button; perhaps, people would wait till it fell further; perhaps, all the central banks of the world would co-operate with each other to make sure that the dollar did not fall below 1.5. But if it did.

China had already lost $300 billion because of depreciation. If it panicked and decided to pull out, the dollar would suffer a massive slide. The Federal Reserve would be forced to increase the interest rate, there would be a recession and the collapse of tens of thousands of banks throughout the world. That, in turn, would lead to trade wars . and perhaps to a world war.

Meeting after a long time. Natubhai Brahmbhatt and Dr. Sam Mahaluxmivala (centre) with Visiting Rotarian PDG Manibhai Doshi (right)

The possibility of all of this happening over the next ten to 12 years was about 10% to 30%, which was a very high probability.

Whether or not such a scenario unfolded would depend upon who became the next US President and on internal developments in Iran and Russia. After all, these countries were in for a change in leadership.

Mr. Waslekar said if Hillary Clinton became President, which was possible, it would be a disaster. She would more or less continue with Mr. Bush's policies with only some differences in style, make-up and so on. If Mr. Romney was elected, he would try to complete Mr. Bush.s incomplete work at an even faster pace.

As for Mr. Obama and Mr. Giuliani, they were unknown entities and could be given the benefit of doubt.

Thus, out of the four possible candidates, with two it could be said with certainty that things would go downhill. But with the remaining two, uncertainty would rule (interestingly, there was one from each side, Democrats and Republican).

While a change would take place in Russia in March next year, Iran was in the midst of choosing a successor to the Chairman of the Assembly of Experts who passed away in early August. This was the only body in Iran controlling the Ayatollah (Khameni now, Khomeini earlier). That successor would decide the course Iran takes over the next four to five years.

"Perhaps we will have sensible people coming to power in these countries and they will find a solution and we won.t have this crisis. I think the only people who will behave sensibly in this whole crisis will be the Chinese . till they press the panic button."

Turning to what he called .the happy picture., Mr. Waslekar said if wars did not happen and if sensible people came to power, would the world still be as it was?

No, he replied. The world would be very different because, in the meanwhile, the biological revolution would move at a very fast pace and, combined with nanotechnology and robotics, it would cause a different kind of outcome.

If not in 2020, then by 2030 or 2040 would begin the next phase of evolution, from the human to the posthuman phase. From mammal to monkey, from monkey to ape, from ape to human being, the next stage of evolution would be "post-human".

"That is the phase that people are now looking at. That.s the main bioethical political issue that the world is debating right now".

Returning to chips and processing power, Mr. Waslekar said according to the Morse Law, the processing speed of a chip doubled every 18 months. At that rate, by 2030 the processing speed of the chip would be the same as that of the human brain. For the first time in 2030, the chip would overtake the human brain. And by 2040 or 2050, the speed of the chip would perhaps reach a thousand times the processing capacity of the brain.

Current scientific research was focussed on whether it was possible to fix the chip in the brain. The main hurdle was the fact that the brain was made up of thousands of millions of neurons, whereas a chip did not have neurons to connect to those already present. But, maybe in 20 or 30 years, nanotechnology would help get over this problem.

Thus, "genetically modified human beings" were a distinct possibility. Already, thanks to the manufacture of artificial human chromosomes, the world was at a stage where it was possible to order "designer" babies.

"It's at a laboratory stage, but it has already been completed and it.s going towards the commercial stage. And when you make a "designer" baby, you are not only affecting the genes of the next generation, you are affecting the genes of all the future generations.

"So if you don.t end up in a war in the next 20 years, you might be subsumed by science in any case.." Mr. Waslekar concluded.

Answering questions, he told Sitaram Shah that the developments in clean technologies, green technologies, new practices and new approaches were heartening vis-à-vis global warming. But, "for these views to come to the fore and have an impact on a large scale, we have to be (living and surviving) here on earth."

Taking the pessimistic view, Burjor Poonawala said it was clear that whichever way one went, one was doomed; and it was technology that seemed to be leading the way to doom. Was it therefore advisable to go back to the bullockcart?

"No, no, no!" Mr. Waslekar exclaimed. "I don't think it's a pessimistic view at all. We are in the middle of a technological revolution. Technology is a tool, with advantages and disadvantages. It depends on how we harness it. because of this revolution, we can find through bio-technology solutions to various problems that are not available through pharmacy."

A whole new slew of technological changes was taking place and there could be a breakthrough in hydrogen fuels in the next ten years which would reduce carbon emissions and bring down global warming.

Ending the debate, President Dr. Rumi Jehangir recalled the adage that "when technology is master, you approach disaster, faster"

Mr. Waslekar was introduced by (Dr.) Arun Vakil; the vote of thanks was proposed by Nandan Maluste.

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